At the same time as the world is approaching constraints in oil production, it is also witnessing the systematic breakdown of many of the ecosystem services that humanity relies upon[1] with the regulation of climate being critical. The impacts of climate change has received considerably more attention than peak oil in New Zealand and therefore this report does not attempt to comprehensively cover this issue but focuses on key impacts climate change could have on urban settlements.
Urban responses to climate change can be categorized as mitigation or adaptation responses. Mitigation aims to reduce green house gas emissions to a level that prevents an increase of more than 2OC. Incorporating global population increases and a 2% GDP growth rate, this would require the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% from a 1990 baseline by 2050[2]. Spread equally this would require that cities to emit only 20% of their 1990 emissions within 40 years. This will likely require structural transformation in urban energy and transport systems.
Settlements will also have to adapt to the many now irreversible impacts of climate change including; increased extreme weather events; water scarcity or flood risk resulting from changes in rainfall patterns; heatwaves; spread of vector borne tropical diseases; changes to the food production potential of urban hinterlands[3]; and climate-change refugees seeking settlement.[4] Figure 2 outlines potential impacts of climate change and peak oil on New Zealand urban settlements.
Next section; Rational for policy intervention
Figure 2. Direct and indirect impacts of climate change and peak oil on NZ urban settlements
[1] MEA (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment). (2005). Living Beyond our Means: Natural Assets and Human Well-Being (Statement from the Board). Available: http://www.millenniumassessment.org/documents/document.429.aspx.pdf. Accessed: May 2008.
[2] Stern N. (2009) A Blueprint for a safer planet; How we can save the world and create prosperity. Vintage Books. London.
[3] Huq, S., Kovats, S., Reid, H., & Satterthwaite, D. (2007). Editorial: Reducing risks to cities from disasters and climate change. Environment & Urbanization , Vol. 19(1): 3-15.
[4] Stern, N. (2006) Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, London, October. Retrieved October 2010 from http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/4/3/Executive_Summary.pdf